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5 most ridiculous Bitcoin predictions ever.

Bitcoin predictions
Every crypto-currency expert has his/her own opinion about the Bitcoin. People often say that, in the world of cryptocurrencies, all predictions are bad predictions. Today, in this article, I want to look at five of the most ridiculous Bitcoin predictions ever made in the past. I’ve done quite a lot of research for this article and found out something really interesting.

Here comes 5 crazy Bitcoin predictions:

$100000

Being a venture capitalist, Pishevar has invested in many companies including big names such as AirBnb and Uber. He has also called for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2021 via Twitter – “Bitcoin will be $100,000 by the end of 2021,” Pishevar tweeted, citing a recent conversation with Saylor. “Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy says there will be 40+ trillion crypto in circulation by end of 2021. That is 40,000,000,000,000 USD ($40 trillion). If that’s true, each bitcoin will be worth $100,000.”

$250000

Billionaire Tim Draper is still bullish that bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2022. The venture capital investor first predicted the cryptocurrency would be worth $10000 in four years back in 2014, when bitcoin’s price was around $400. Draper is a long-time advocate for bitcoin and has been investing in the cryptocurrency since 2013.

$318000

Thomas Fitzpatrick, a co-founder of the popular cryptocurrency exchange platform BitMEX, said he believes that bitcoin will be worth over $318,000 by 2022. In an interview with Bloomberg on November 15, 2018, Fitzpatrick said that he expects bitcoin’s price to reach new highs in the next few years. He explained that bitcoin will most likely hit $50,000 in the next year and then will continue to rise even further after that.

$500000

The Winklevoss Twins, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss have predicted that the bitcoin value will hit $500,000 by 2030. The twins are the first investors in Facebook Inc. They have been investing in Bitcoins since 2012, when they bought $11 million worth of BTC at less than $10 per coin.

$1000000

Wences Casares, the founder of Xapo, a highly respected Silicon Valley bitcoin wallet company, says that bitcoin will be worth $1 million by 2027. Casares made this statement during an interview with the FOX Business Network (FBN). He predicts that bitcoin could hit such a high value because it is like gold and can be used as a store of value.

Bitcoin is hugely controversial because of its potential for facilitating illicit transactions and money laundering. But new investors don’t seem to care about the controversy. They see only the promise of big gains in bitcoin’s future. While many have tried to figure out a way to predict the price of bitcoin, it’s a particularly tough problem. After all, bitcoin is a new and highly volatile asset class, and there’s no historical data with which to compare it.

The information contained in our publications is not, and should not be read as, an offer or recommendation to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Our publications are not, and should not be seen as, a recommendation to use any particular investment strategy.

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Trader VS Hodler – week #3

trader vs hodler

 

 

If You’ve ever thought how much money would you make if you become trader than you are in a right place. We always put our strategy to the test to make sure it works correctly. Before jumping to results, we quickly introduce rules.
It’s simple

  • we use PipEze Price Movement Benchmark indicator
  • we open position when the signal line ( black line ) crosses up trend line ( thick green-red line )
  • we close position when the signal line ( black line ) crosses down trend line ( thick green-red line )
  • we only open Long positions

Results are for 1 week Monday – Sunday.

Today’s results are from 23/08 – 29/08.

Lets go!!

We start with Trader and this is how full weekly chart looks like.

This is how many trades we could make during this week – green are winning trades and red is losing trades.

Trade #1

Trade #2

Trade #3

Trade #4

 

Trade #5

 

 

Trade #6

Total profit for Trader was 7190.

 

Hodler has to do only one thing – HODL. Total profit for Hodler is 5400.

If you are interested in how we calculated Trader’s profit, here is a spreadsheet.

The winner for week #3 is – TRADER.

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Trader VS Hodler – week #2

trader vs hodler

 

 

If You’ve ever thought how much money would you make if you become trader than you are in a right place. We always put our strategy to the test to make sure it works correctly. Before jumping to results, we quickly introduce rules.
It’s simple

  • we use PipEze Price Movement Benchmark indicator
  • we open position when the signal line ( black line ) crosses up trend line ( thick green-red line )
  • we close position when the signal line ( black line ) crosses down trend line ( thick green-red line )
  • we only open Long positions

Results are for 1 week Monday – Sunday.

Today’s results are from 15/08 – 22/08.

Lets go!!

We start with Trader and this is how full weekly chart looks like.

This is how many trades we could make during this week – green are winning trades and red is losing trades.

Trade #1

Trade #2

Trade #3

Trade #4

 

Trade #5

 

 

 

Total profit for Trader was 8047 .

 

Hodler has to do only one thing – HODL. Total profit for Hodler is 5700.

If you are interested in how we calculated Trader’s profit, here is a spreadsheet.

The winner for week #2 is – TRADER.

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Trader VS Hodler – week #1

trader vs hodler

 

 

If You’ve ever thought how much money would you make if you become trader than you are in a right place. We always put our strategy to the test to make sure it works correctly. Before jumping to results, we quickly introduce rules.
It’s simple

  • we use PipEze Price Movement Benchmark indicator
  • we open position when the signal line ( black line ) crosses up trend line ( thick green-red line )
  • we close position when the signal line ( black line ) crosses down trend line ( thick green-red line )
  • we only open Long positions

Results are for 1 week Monday – Sunday.

Today’s results are from 09/08 – 15/08.

Lets go!!

We start with Trader and this is how full weekly chart looks like.

This is how many trades we could make during this week – green are winning trade and red are losing trades.

Trade #1

Trade #2

Trade #3

Trade #4

 

Trade #5

 

Trade #6

 

Trade #7

 

 

Total profit for Trader was 4700 .

 

Hodler has to do only one thing – HODL. Total profit for Hodler is 2800.

If you are interested in how we calculated Trader’s profit, here is spreadsheet.

The winner for week #1 is – TRADER.

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1 week, 3 trades, $9000 profit

Making money by trading cryptocurrency can be as easy as 1-2-3. More precisely, like 1 trade, 2 trades, 3 trades. In one week. Result can be astonishing – we are talking big money – $9000. Tested formula implemented in one indicator – PipEze Price Movement Benchmark. Have a quick look how can you make it.

We start by saving money. Holding while price is dropping only proves that you are lacking great trading strategy. We know that price can recover and jump up again, but what’s the point of sweating yourself when market is heading down. Pro players close position before price drop or even better – they go SHORT. We choose to close our position in order to protect our investment. It’s exactly what you could do with trade number 1. $2000 made because we didn’t lose it.

$2000 save

Trade number 2 starts where trade number 1 has finished. We get a Price Up signal and off we go. Opening position takes only 1 click of Buy button. We ride the trend up and 23 hours later we are richer off $3000. No need to analyze the chart – we trust the indicator.

$3000 profit

Finally, trade number 3. This one took few days to appear. This one was a good one – $4000 in profit if you trade only 1BTC. Price was slowly creeping up for a few days – nothing exiting. PipEze PMB was telling us that there are lots of buyers in the market and only few sellers. Sunday night we got notification that there is a trade opportunity. We trust indicator; we open Long position and BOOM – 4 hours later our account is $4000 bigger.

$4000 profit

It does not matter which direction market goes – up, down, or sideways. What really matters is – are you profiting from current market conditions? This silly question only becomes very important once you are a Holder waiting another few hours for price to go higher. See what happened :

hodlers profit

traders profit

Just because it looks like price is going up, it doesn’t mean that you are making more money. You’re making money only when you closing position in a right place.

 

 

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Phenomenon of HODL – how to improve most popular trading strategy.

If you are cryptocurrency trader, you most probably have heard word HODL. Well, it used to be a word or more precisely call to not to sell any coins. Nowadays, HODL became trading strategy and those who use that strategy are Hodlers. Although financial market is very large and you can trade virtually everything, most Hodlers are crypto traders. Why is it that this strategy is so popular among cryptocurrency fans?

To understand this phenomenon, we have to go back to 2010 when a guy called Jeremy Sturdivant sold two pizzas for 10000 BTC. Back then, in May 2010,  10000 Bitcoins were worth $41. Crypto market in a today’s form didn’t exist in 2010. People made trading through internet forums where they had to agree on value of Bitcoin. Yahoo Finance BTC historical price goes as far as September 2014, which was around $400. TradingView is similar – earliest available price is from December 2014. In 2010 no-one even dreamt that Bitcoin will be worth over $1. Going back to Jeremy Sturdivant and his 10000 BTC, we can slowly see why HODL strategy is so strong. If pizza guy would keep his crypto he would turn his $41 in to $320,000,000 (as on 14/07/2021). IF he would HOLD his BTC…

To visualise price difference between common asset, like Apple stock and BTC, let’s look at the chart below.
From 2010 till today Apple stock price barely lift off from 0. To be more specific it went from $9 to $144 while BTC went from $0.004 to $32000 (as on 14/07/2021). The difference is astronomical.

HOLD - btc vs apple

HODL as a trading plan.

When you realize that the only thing which you have to do to make that gigantic profit is HOLD, you know becoming rich is as simple as 1-2-3. Anyone can HOLD; HODL I easy; HODL doesn’t require any special knowledge or qualification. When you are HOLDing, you know you are becoming rich almost effortlessly. Suddenly you realising that all those stories about overnight fortune are true because you are one of that stories. Or maybe not?

As much as I would love to believe that HODL is a great trading strategy which will make you tons of money, I have to say I disagree. Let me explain why I think HOLD is a recipe for disaster.

The easiest part of trading in financial market is opening a position. You can do it anytime as long as you have money to spend and internet access. One press of the BUY button and job done, you have just become HOLDER. Now you have to hold and watch your investment growing. If it happened, you entered at a good moment you soon see more and more money on your trading account. Ok, so where is the bad part of holding? Well, the bad part is to close your position and walk away with profit.

Most of crypto traders are people without specific or complex trading plan. They usually know about trading as much as people they follow on Twitter, Reddit, Facebook or YouTube. They open position when everyone is shouting Buy The Dip and never sell because everybody is screaming HODL HODL. Only after they miss the top and find themselves in another bottom, they can’t sell because they lost most or all the profit they made. Usually they HODL for so long they losing initial investment and walk away with nothing but pain and humiliation.

Becoming HODLer is like placing yourself among an ever-growing group of people, which are opening Long position every day and want to close it once money is doubled or tripled. This creates situations where people who entered market a month ago can’t leave it because people which entered week ago or yesterday screaming and shouting HOLD HOLD. They are convincing other members of the group to not to liquidate position because price will go higher.

HODL vicious circle.

How it works :
–  You enter position when HODLERS are shouting Buy Buy.
– Once you’re in You shout HOLD HOLD because price goes up.
– When you are at the top HODLERS are shouting HOLD HOLD expecting the price to go higher.
– Market is crashing HODLERS are shouting HOLD HOLD believing that they are controlling the price of crypto and as long as they don’t sell, price can not drop.
– Then comes the dip so HODLERS are screaming BUY THE DIP.

At this point, most of them (holders) already lost all profit and often lost part of initial investment. Now there is nothing else to do but start the cycle again.

HODL strategy infographic

Improving trading strategy.

Holding strategy is missing one important stage- SELL. There are no Holders which are brave enough to close position and enjoy profit. Holders believe in never ending price rise but what’s worth noting is the fact that there were never financial assets which didn’t stop growing in value.

So how can you improve most popular trading strategy? There are two points which you should add to your trading plan:

1 – close your position once you made sufficient profit

2 – close your position once you lose too much of your initial investment

 

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Why Bitcoin outperforms SP500 ?

Bitcoin outperforms SP500

 

 

Investing in S&P500

 

Mainstream investing for many people means buying and selling stocks. Sounds easy but which stock to buy? If you want to minimise the risk, you can invest in S&P500 index which is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies. S&P index always was a safe bet because it’s very well diversified and annual can generate a steady profit over time.

 

sp500 daily chart

 

 

 

Investing in Bitcoin

 S&P is over 60 years old invention and although it still works there are better tools to make money. One of them is cryptocurrency.
There are over 1000 coins available to invest but one which reflects and dominate the whole market is Bitcoin. In my previous article I pointed out that BTC is not the best crypto-investment, but it does reflect market trend and sentiment. Similarly to SP500, investing in Bitcoin is the safe move if You don’t want to analyse every cryptocurrency available to buy.  Cryptomarket is very volatile and because of that can be scary for many new players. But how BTC looks like in comparison to SP500? Does Bitcoin outperforms SP500 ?

 

btc daily chart

 

 

Why Bitcoin outperforms SP500 ?

 As an investor, you want maximum profit with minimum risk. Choosing good old strategy to achieve our goal is OK most of the times. But sometimes old strategy can underperform, harming your wallet. Analysing closely two assets can revile hidden gems. I’m talking about Bitcoin outperforms SP500 a big time.

Many investors don’t consider buying cryptocurrency just because mainstream media releases only bad news about Bitcoin. When you calculate average annual return on investment on BTC and SP500 you soon realise how much money you could make.

Bitcoin outperforms SP500

Bitcoin outperforms SP500

Let’s crunch some numbers.

Average ROI for SP500 is 9% for 6 years period. Same 6 years period for BTC brings you a staggering 59% ROI.

While there are big gains for Bitcoin,  you could lose as well. Chances that you would lose by investing at the wrong moment are only 16%.  That gives you 84% chances that if you buy Bitcoin at the beginning of year you will gain 50% on average. So starting at 2015 if you invest 1000$ each year you would make a profit of 2500$ and about 100$ lose.

If you invest the same amount at SP500 your ROI would be around 600$. It is 4 times lower than the profit from BTC.

Another good argument for crypto-investment is the fact that you can buy Bitcoin and keep it without worrying about price fluctuations. While betting on SP500 involves CFD trading which can be very risky if the market goes against you.

 

Conclusion on Bitcoin outperforms SP500

 Analysing markets and assets of our choice is a key to success. Financial media ( press releases, TV news) not always give a proper perspective, which can result in poor investment decisions. Diversifying your portfolio also means playing on deferent markets to maximise profit and minimise risk.

 

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No, Bitcoin is not a King of performance !!!

chart showing profit comparason

 

 

Back in 2015, not many people knew what cryptocurrency is and how to use it.

At that time, Bitcoin was a thing of young people, but two years later in 2017, everybody knew what Bitcoin is. The growing popularity of BTC was the primary factor of price surge.  In January 2018 when 20000USD mark was reached the crash happened.

Bitcoin was so famous (and still is) that many called it a King of cryptocurrency.

20000$ for one coin sounds insane, but it doesn’t make Bitcoin best investment in the cryptocurrency world.

Comparing BTC to other now popular coins can be very interesting if you do it properly.

Bitcoin performance on charts

Let’s take Ripple ( XRP ), Litecoin ( LTC ) and Ethereum ( ETH ) – 3 biggest rivals of Bitcoin.
Looking at the chart, you can clearly see that price-wise BTC outperforms other coins.

bitcoin performance on chart
A spread chart is showing BTC constant price domination. December 2017 price difference between BTC and ETH was 18800$.

BTC ETH price difference

But from a profit perspective, things are looking different. Whether you are an investor or speculator, jumping on popularity train might be the wrong choice for your money.

chart showing profit comparason

To see which coin was generating the most profit from 2015 to 2020, we must normalise our price data. Once that is done, we invest 100$ in each cryptocurrency and see results.

With that configuration, we can see that Bitcoin’s performance is worst from all of the coins.

BTC – King of performance?

Analysing the performance chart, we see that investing 100$ in ETH would generate 50 000$ profit. Spending the same amount on LTC could bring you 8500$ back.  Sadly but still good, Bitcoin would make 7000$ in profit.

Even the cheapest XRP outperformed BTC. With 40 000$ in profit, Ripple was our 2nd best bet on the crypto market.

BTC ETH profit difference

BTC LTC profit diffrence

Litecoin, which for a long time, was called a Bitcoin’s successor recorded a similar performance. In comparison to BTC, LTC reached 8500$ with Bitcoin merely 7000$. It looks like massive popularity and lots of noise in media are not healthy ingredients for cryptocurrency ROI.

BTC XRP profit differnce

Bitcoin profit performance

The spread measurement between Bitcoin and Ethereum reveals a gap of 44000$. This is how much money we are not earning when investing in the wrong asset.

BTC ETH profit spread difference